![]() ![]() In value terms, out of the 207 countries considered, domestic port downtime risk dominates for 30 (26) countries for their imports (exports), while for the remaining countries the cross-border risk dominates. To capture such systemic risks, we start by calculating the amount of each country’s maritime imports and exports at-risk due to port downtime and quantify domestic (domestic ports used for imports/exports) and cross-border downtime risk (foreign ports used for transhipments and import/exports at trading partners). For instance, in 2017, the shutdown of Australian coal exporting ports as a result of Cyclone Debbie led to supply shortages in Indian and Chinese steel mills 8. Port disruptions can have wider impacts for international trade and economic activity. In fact, these knock-on port-to-port disruptions are found to be larger than direct downtime risk for around two-thirds of ports. ![]() The average disruption at ports in these regions is relatively low, but the potential for knock-on effects from disruptions at transport dependent ports is relatively high (>80% of total downtime risk). In relative terms, the potentials for port-to-port disruptions are particularly high in Southern Australia, the Middle East, Western Africa, South America, the Western United States and parts of Northern Europe (Extended Data Fig. 1) tend to have higher port-to-port downtime risk because they do not benefit from diversification of partners (Supplementary Methods). Moreover, ports having a lower number of trading partners (Supplementary Fig. Both of these versions of disruption are high in cyclone-prone regions, making the two correlated (Spearman’s rank correlation = 0.50), as ports tend to be connected to ports in their geographic proximity. 1b shows how these impacts propagate to other ports through port-to-port shipping delays. 1a reproduces our previous results for average climate-related downtime, whilst Extended Data Fig. Others 7 found that when a European port is subject to coastal flooding, other European ports are most prone to knock-on disruptions but so are ports in North America, northern Africa and the Middle East. Specifically, we calculate the delays in ship arrivals at a port because of disruptions at a port where the goods are loaded ( Methods). We start by extending our previous analysis of port downtime risk 6 to quantify the (first-order) knock-on delays at the ports of trading partners. This information is essential to identify cross-border vulnerabilities, as well as preparing ports, firms and countries for port-related shocks, which are not adequately quantified using best practice tools for risk assessment, for example in the insurance sector. This allows us to quantify the systemic exposure of transport, trade and supply chains to port disruptions ( Methods). Here, we combine these estimates of port downtime risk with a dataset of (1) ship movements between ports, (2) maritime transport freight flows and (3) dependencies between ports and global supply chains 1. Together, climate-related disruptions were found to have a downtime risk of 1.4 days across ports globally but >5 days for 5% of ports. ![]() 6, we quantified the annual expected downtime days per year (downtime risk) associated with operational disruptions (due to weather extremes), as well as the reconstruction time associated with physical damage to ports from climate extremes (cyclone wind and coastal, fluvial and pluvial flooding), for the 1,320 most critical ports globally. 5 revealed that every dollar of trade that is disrupted at the port of Los Angeles-Long Beach could have a multiplier effect of 2.9 through domestic supply chains. Such climatic shocks to ports can have systemic impacts, including knock-on effects to other ports and across supply chains. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (2005), the port of New Orleans was shut for almost 4 months 4. For instance, operations at the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo are disrupted for 5 to 6 days each year on average because of extreme wind conditions 3. The most extreme events can cause extensive physical damage and render ports inoperable for longer periods of time. However, many ports are exposed to operational disruptions from extreme weather events, causing costly downtime 2. ![]() Ports handle around 80% of the volume of global trade 1. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |